Election Tracking

What to expect on the General Election ballot? Well, although we are still early in the candidate nomination period, we still have some idea of what to expect.

With the “Top Two Primary” going into effect this year, the number of candidates on the General Election ballot will be capped at 315 this year, although we’re likely to see a few less than that. In recent years, we have seen around ten races each year that have only one candidate, so expecting about 305-310 candidates is probably reasonable. The candidate numbers break down;

7 candidates for U.S. President
2 candidates for U.S. Senator
106 candidates for U.S. Representative (2 per district for 53 districts)
40 candidates for (2 per district for 20 districts)
160 candidates for State Assembly (2 per district for 80 districts)

We should find out who the candidates are (with the exception of the Presidential nominees) in two waves;

  • In races with only one or two candidates, we should know who will be appearing on the November ballot shortly after the end of the filing period (on or before March 24th).
  • In races with three or more candidates, we will have to wait until after the Primary Election (June 5th) to see which two candidates received the most votes and will continue to the General Election.

If not before, Presidential nominees should become apparent after each of the party conventions;

  • American Independent nominee to be selected at convention by April 21.
  • Libertarian nominee to be selected at convention by May 6.
  • Americans Elect nominee to be selected online by July 1.
  • Green nominee to be selected at convention by July 15.
  • Peace & Freedom nominee to be selected at convention by August 5.
  • Republican nominee to be selected at convention by August 30.
  • Democratic nominee to be selected at convention by September 6.

Primary Candidate Tracking Report (1/19/2012)

There are currently 166 candidates for Congress and 320 candidates for the State Legislature in the 2012 Primary Election who are currently being tracked in preparation for updating the JoinCalifornia database.

Congress (53 Seats; 166 Candidates)
85 Democrats
73 Republicans
3 Libertarians
2 Greens
2 Independents/No Party Preference

State Senate (20 Seats; 52 Candidates)
30 Democrats
20 Republicans
1 Libertarians
1 Independents/No Party Preference

State Assembly (80 Seats; 246 Candidates)
143 Democrats
85 Republicans
1 Green
1 Peace and Freedom
16 Independents/No Party Preference

Of the 298 state legislative candidates, 120 have appeared previously on General Election ballots, 87 are current legislators, and 18 are former legislators.

Hertzberg running for State Senate?

Speaker Hertzberg

The Los Angeles Daily News had an article on the potential campaign by former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg for the newly drawn State Senate District 27.

If Hertzberg does decide to run, he will be breaking the mold. Although it wasn’t uncommon for Assembly Speakers to be elected to the Senate in the early years of the state (in fact, two individuals served as both Assembly Speaker and Senate pro Tem), it has been 84 years since the last Speaker moved to the upper house.

Governor Merriam

 The last Assembly Speaker to become a State Senator was Frank F. Merriam (Speaker in 1923-1926), who was elected to the State Senate in 1928 and went on to be Governor in 1934. Since Merriam, at least four other Speakers have run for (and lost) races for the State Senate;

A decade after Merriam was elected to the Senate, Speaker Edgar C. Levey lost a General Election campaign for SD-14 in 1938. In the 1950s, Sam L. Collins lost a Primary Election bid for SD-35 in 1952 and James W. Silliman lost in a Special Election for a SD-25 in 1955. Finally, Doris Allen ran in the SD-35 Special Election of 1995 (losing the primary to Ross Johnson).

With incumbent State Senators Fran Pavley and Tony Strickland already in the race, Hertzberg has some major challenges to overcome. But if Stickland withdraws to run for Congress, Hertzberg’s positive relationship with legislative Republicans might be a major advantage in the new Top Two Primary structure.

New Years Update: Longest Serving Officials

With the new year starting, it was time to update the list of California’s longest-serving officials. Because term limits limit state legislators to eight years in the Senate and six in the Assembly, the last 20+ year legislator left the Capitol in 1998. Only members of Congress and the Senate moved up on the “Longest Serving” list this year. The updates this year included;

Congressman Pete Stark moving into the #2 spot, with his 39 years in Congress falling behind only Board of Equalization member George Reilly (at 44 years). Stark still has a while before securing the #1 position; his tenure in Congress won’t exceed Reilly’s tenure on the BOE until January 4, 2017.

U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer also moved closer to twenty years in office (as did Congresswoman Lucille Roybal-Allard). Feinstein will reach the two-decade mark in November 2012, while Boxer and Roybal-Allard will hit twenty years in January 2013.

2012 Elections Begin

Tomorrow marks the official start of the 2012 election season. Although candidates have been announcing their campaigns for months, California law designates December 30th as the first day on which candidate may begin collecting and filing signatures in lieu of filing fees. The key dates for the June Primary are:

December 30 – February 23: Signatures in Lieu of Filing Fees

February 13 – March 9: Regular Nomination Period

March 10 – 14, 2012: Extended Nomination Period (if an eligible incumbent does not file for office)

April 9 – May 22: Write-In Candidate Filing Period

June 5: Presidential Primary Election

Source: Candidate Filing Information from the California Secretary of State

 

We should have a complete idea of what the June ballot will look like by March 15th. With the exception of a very close race or two, the candidate line-up for the November election should be known by the end of June 6th.

Record Setting Legislative Turnover (December Update)

As we discussed in a previous post three months ago, it looks like California is going to see a near-record number of new legislators in 2013.

In the Senate, 7 State Senators will be leaving due to term limits. Four Senators (Ronald Calderon, Gloria Negrete-McLeod, Michael Rubio, and Juan Vargas), are running for Congress mid-term, which has the potential to create two new vacancies in mid-2013 if they win.

Potential new Senators: 11

In the Assembly, 22 Assemblymembers will be leaving due to term limits. Another five will give up their Assembly seats to run for Congress (Norma Torres, David Valadao, Isadore Hall, Roger Hernandez, and Jeff Miller). Assemblyman Fletcher will give up a third term in the Assembly to run for Mayor of San Diego. Bill Berryhill, Marty Block and Bill Monning will be running for Senate. Paul Fong, Bonnie Lowenthal and V. Manuel Perez, who had been thinking about Senate campaigns, have decided to remain in the Assembly. Alyson Huber will be voluntarily declining to seek a third term. Warren Furutani, eligible for another term in the Assembly, is currently running for Los Angeles City Council (with the run-off scheduled for January 17th) Finally, Mike Morrell and Tim Donnelly are likely to face tough primary challenges, while Jeff Gorell may have difficulty in November.

Potential new Assemblymembers: 33-36 31-34

These numbers (a total of about 44-47 at this point) ignore the number of new Assembly vacancies that might open if any of the State Senators are elected to Congress.


Updated 12/23/2011 at 7:16 pm to include information about Morrell, Donnelly, Gorell, and Furutani.


Updated 12/27/2011 at 3:52 pm to remove Michael Rubio’s congressional run. He announced today that he will not be running.


Updated 12/30/2011 at 9:57 am to remove Isadore Hall’s congressional run. He announced yesterday that he would remain in the Assembly rather than run against two incumbent members of Congress.

California’s Disaster Governor

Most people are familiar with the idea of a line of succession; a series of people who would take over in the event that an official is killed, disabled, or is temporarily absent or unavailable to hold their office. For example, when President Kennedy was assassinated and when President Nixon resigned, their Vice Presidents assumed the empty office.

In California, the line of succession for the Governor starts with the Lieutenant Governor, who sits in the #2 position. In our state, Lieutenant Governors have succeeded to the Governorship seven times (most recently in 1953). After the Lt. Governor, the position transfers (in order) to the Senate President pro Tem, Speaker of the Assembly, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer, Controller, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Insurance Commissioner, and Chair of the Board of Equalization.

Earl Smittcamp (Courtesy CSU Fresno)

But who takes over if these constitutional officers are killed or missing in a major disaster or nuclear attack? It’s a name you’re not likely to recognize: Earl S. Smittcamp, a 92-year-old frozen food businessman from the farming town of Clovis.

The line of succession beyond these constitutional officers is dictated by an obscure law written in the 1950s at the height of cold war tension amid concerns about an impending nuclear war between the United States and USSR. The law, which remains in effect today as Government Code section 12050-53, requires the Governor to appoint up to seven Disaster Acting Governors, in a ranked order, to assume control of the state in the event that the rest of the civilian government for the state was killed or missing.

After the passage of the law in 1958, Governor Pat Brown appointed his Disaster Acting Governors. Of the seven appointed in 1959, the only one resigned before the end of Brown’s term was Thomas C. Lynch. According to newspaper reports, Lynch resigned as Disaster Acting Governor #1 in order to run for Attorney General in 1966, which he won.

"Disaster Acting Governor #6" Oath of Office signed by Earl Smittcamp on August 25, 1967

After the 1966 election, Ronald Reagan moved into the Governor’s office and soon appointed a new group of seven new Disaster Governors. In addition to Smittcamp (designated as “Disaster Acting Governor #6″), other six others were Carlyle Reed (#1), Victor Lundy (#2), R. Gwin Follis (#3), Y. Frank Freeman (#4), Virgil Pinkley (#5), and A. W. Bramwell (#7). Two years later, Reagan appointed Robert L. Vickers to fill the vacancy created when Freeman died in 1969.

Since the appointment of Vickers in 1969, no new Disaster Governors were appointed and time has gradually taken its toll on Reagan’s seven appointees; Lundy and Bramwell died in the 1970s, with Follis and Pinkley following in the early 1990s. Carlyle Reed died in 1999, leaving only Vickers and Smittcamp rounding out the line of succession.

After more than a decade as the highest-ranked Disaster Governor, Vickers died earlier this year at age 92. Now, after nearly half a century, Smittcamp serves on as California’s last remaining Doomsday Governor.

70 Years After Pearl Harbor

Wednesday marks the 70th anniversary of the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor that launched the United States into World War II. The war, which killed more than 62 million people,

John B. Cooke

Two legislators, Assemblymen John B. Cooke and G. Delbert Morris, were at Pearl Harbor during the attack. Cooke, a sitting legislator, had been called to active duty after the 1941 Regular Session ended and had to request permission from the Assembly to miss the special session called in the days after the attack.

Within a month of the attack, Governor Culbert Olson had issued a number of proclamations including ordering California authorities to assist in the registration, evacuation and internment of “Enemy Aliens” in the coastal areas of California (which had been designated a combat zone by the U.S. military).

Of the thousands of Japanese relocated to internment camps during the war were eight who would later become legislators in California; Nao Takasugi (Gila River), Mike Honda (Granada), Norm Mineta (Heart Mountain), Paul T. Bannai (Lone Pine), Doris Matsui (Poston), George Nakano, Alan Nakanishi, Robert Matsui (all three at Tulelake).

Although Pearl Harbor was the last major engagement fought on U.S. soil, the war continued overseas for another three and a half years. Sixteen million Americans served in the war, including over 200 men who later served in the California legislature;

  • Robert W. Crown and Laughlin Waters were an infantry officers who lead soldiers in France
  • John C. Begovich fought in several campaigns; North Africa, Sicily, Italy and France
  • Gil Ferguson fought in the Pacific, including at Tarawa
  • Two others, Burt Talcott and George G. Crawford, lived as POWs for more than a year after their bombers were shot down on runs over Germany

Lou Papan

The contributions made by the WWII generation continue to define much of contemporary politics in California. In fact, it was less than a decade ago when the last WWII veteran, Assemblyman Lou Papan, served in the legislature (retiring in 2002).

Those we lost in 2011.

California lost a some notable state officials and candidates in 2011. Among those who died in 2011 were legislators, judges, mentors, and one who was trusted for more than four decades with keeping the candle of democracy lit if the world burned. As we near the end of the year, we wanted to take a moment to recognize their lives and contributions.

JANUARY
Donald D. Doyle – Assemblyman (1953-1958)
Wayne Grisham – Congressman (1979-1983), Assemblyman (1984-1988)

FEBRUARY
Steve Horn – Congressman (1993-2003)

MARCH
Robert L. Vickers – Disaster Acting Governor #3 (1969-2011)
Howard J. Thelin – Assemblyman (1956-1966)
Doug McNea – Candidate for Congress and Assembly

APRIL
Bob Epple – Assemblyman (1988-1994)

MAY
Frank S. Petersen – State Senator (1962-1966)

JUNE
Matt Fong – State Treasurer (1995-1998)
John Stull – Assemblyman (1967-1973), State Senator (1973-1978)

AUGUST
Floyd G. Sampson – Candidate for Congress
Gib Marguth – Assemblyman (1980-1982)
Dick Floyd – Assemblyman (1980-1992, 1996-2000)
Charles Gubser – Assemblyman (1951-1952), Congressman (1953-1975)

OCTOBER
Matthew G. Martinez – Assemblyman (1980-1982), Congressman (1982-2001)
Tim Hodson – Director of the Center for California Studies (1993-2011)

NOVEMBER
Teresa P. Hughes – Assemblywoman (1975-1992), State Senator (1992-2000)
Carlos J. Moorhead – Assemblyman (1967-1972), Congressman (1973-1996)

DECEMBER
*

Lawsuit Filed to Challenge Prop 14

A lawsuit has been filed in the Alameda County Superior Court to challenge the new “Top Two Primary” and request an injunction to prevent its use in the 2012 and 2014 elections. The lawsuit was filed Monday against Secretary of State Debra Bowen by Michael Rubin, Manja Argue, Steve Collett, Marsha Feinland, Charles L. Hooper, Katherine Tanaka, C. T. Weber, Cat Woods, the Green Party of Alameda Co., the Libertarian Party of California, and the Peace and Freedom Party of California.

At a press conference outside of the Secretary of State’s office this morning, the plaintiffs made a case very similar to that described by Dr. Levinson in her recent Loyola Law Review article; that the new law will create a de facto barrier to minor party participation in General Elections, which will result in their eventual disqualification. Richard Winger, editor of the Ballot Access News, noted that this is just the latest in a number of judicial and legislative attempts to clarify or correct issues with Proposition 14.